Colchester, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXUS61 KBTV 150235
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building slowly southward from Canada will bring
mainly dry weather through early next week along with a gradual
warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms arrives mainly
from next Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front affects the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1028 PM EDT Saturday... The race to the bottom has begun,
with ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up. Most areas
are in the 50s already, though a few hollows of the Northeast
Kingdom are already down in the 40s. Blended in more MOS
guidance to lower temperatures later tonight to match trends.
Much of the model guidance has too many clouds this evening, and
it is likely helping contribute it to being too warm, so there
is a decent chance even the cold MAV/MET may be too warm for
tonight. Later tonight will have to be watched as some fog or
low stratus may form in places and slow the temperature
decreases.

Previous Forecast...High pressure straddling Ontario and
Quebec is pushing sunnier skies into the forecast area from the
north and northwest, allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s and
70s. However, southern Vermont remains cooler within the clouds this
afternoon, struggling into the lower 60s. All is quiet in terms of
precipitation this afternoon and evening.

Mainly quiet weather continues tonight, though a shortwave with vort
energy displaced to the north will bring a wave of renewed moisture,
increasing clouds again in southern zones. This may trigger a pre-
dawn shower across the Adirondacks, but overall chances are only
about 10-30% of measurable precipitation reaching the surface.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s by the end of the
night, which is quite average for mid June in northern New York and
Vermont. There is some chance of patchy fog in typical valley spots,
but most likely in the valleys that received rain from last night`s
showers.

A larger but still relatively weak shortwave trough is expected to
clip the forecast area to our north and east tomorrow, resulting in
about 15-35% chance of measurable precipitation falling out of
scattered showers throughout the day, mainly for the Adirondacks
into central Vermont. Meanwhile, drier air will push mostly sunny
skies into the St. Lawrence Valley and international border. Highs
will be a few degrees below seasonal averages in the lower to mid
70s, making for a pleasant day with light and variable winds.

Subtle upper level ridging will build in on Sunday night, pairing
with nearby surface high in Atlantic will make for potentially the
right conditions for valley fog across the forecast area. Some
lingering moisture could keep clouds around in the southern half of
our region, but drier, clearer air will continue to dominate in the
north. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 40s and 50s Sunday night
with continued light and variable winds, except perhaps over Lake
Champlain, which should develop a light south-southeasterly wind
late in the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 306 PM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure will slowly drift
to the east on Monday, while a weak shortwave rides over the top of
a very shallow upper ridge. Moisture will be pretty limited, so the
main impacts will be just some increasing clouds. However, can`t
rule out a few showers, mainly over the higher terrain, during the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect south winds and highs in the mid
70s to close to 80F. We may see a little clearing Monday night, and
any showers would definitely wind down overnight. Still, increasing
moisture and any lingering clouds will help to keep lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s, leading into our warming trend for mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 306 PM EDT Saturday...Expect a warming trend as we head into
mid week, along with increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. A slow-moving upper trough will remain centered well
to our north, with various shortwaves traversing through the
west/southwest flow ahead of it. Temperatures will likely warm well
into the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday while dewpoints surge into
the mid and upper 60s. The result will be increasingly humid
conditions, with heat index values approaching 90F both Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons, particularly in the Champlain and lower CT
Valleys. Little relief likely Wednesday night as high dewpoints will
keep lows in the 60s, potentially near 70F. Heat and humidity will
also lend toward greater afternoon instability, fueling potential
showers and thunderstorms. The highest potential for precipitation
will be Wednesday and particularly Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the west, eventually pushing through our area
sometime Thursday/Thursday night. Depending on exact timing (which
is differs between model solutions and is difficult to pinpoint this
far out), this frontal passage and/or any pre-frontal trough could
give cause for concern for the potential for stronger thunderstorms.
Note that the latest GFS has SB CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
Thursday afternoon, along with 0-6km shear of 30-45 kt, which would
help support stronger convection. And with PWATs approaching 2
inches, heavy rain would be a concern, as well. Still too early to
nail down the details, but stay tuned for later updates. Conditions
improve once the front does go by, and we could be back into a much
more comfortable airmass by the weekend, with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to mostly persist
through the next 24 hours, except for some patchy fog formation
tonight. It has the highest probabilities of reaching SLK, MPV and
EFK, though the confidence of it reaching any specific terminal is
still not overly high. Winds will mostly be light and terrain driven
during this period. A couple light showers are possible late tonight
and during the day tomorrow but they should not significantly reduce
visibilities.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski